| VoIP to cross "early-adopter chasm" in 2005, expert says |
Dec. 21, 2004
VoIP (voice-over-IP) pioneer Jeff Pulver has unveiled his predictions for the continuing growth and development of the VoIP industry during the coming year. According to a statement issued by Pulver today, his 15 predictions for 2005 are . . .
- VoIP in the USA will cross the "early-adopter chasm."
- Broadband penetration will begin to snowball in the US, but not at a pace fast enough to raise America's mediocre global standing in broadband penetration.
- We will see the restart of VoIP IPOs, and we will also see some VoIP startups burning-out due to lack of marketing funds and customer base . . . and vision.
- Still more major carrier VoIP announcements, as well as significant product announcements from major non-carriers (including software and Internet giants).
- New battle lines and tangling alliances will form between and among carriers, vendors, and application providers and debate will grow over the continuing role for unaffiliated, non-carrier VoIP providers.
- (a) The FCC will not establish an IP-Communications Bureau.
(b) The FCC will release an Order in the IP-Enabled Services Proceeding, setting forth a broad, hands-off approach for VoIP.
- Governments around the world will look harder at VoIP regulation, and service providers will respond by stepping up their efforts to deploy industry-based solutions for many of the social issues confronting the industry (e.g., emergency response, lawful intercept).
- The pace of Wireless replacement of Wireline will increase.
- ENUM (Electronic Numbering) will continue to happen around the world . . . and the US will continue to lag.
- Open Source communications will continue to gain momentum, the effects of which will be felt in the next 12-18 months.
- IM and incidental communications and applications (such as "presence") will continue to grow unregulated.
- Universal Service will move to a connections-based system.
- Access rates and inter-carrier compensation will trend down (although the long-anticipated unified intercarrier comp reform will not be seen in '05.)
- Sides will be drawn further as Congressional debate grows over the likely rewrite of the Communications Act. We will find out who our friends are and who has just been paying us lip-service.
- 2005 might be the year of Bluetooth. 2005 will see the emergence of the first dual, or multi-mode, phones capable of switching from WiFi to mobile wireless (and perhaps to landline).
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"We are in the midst of a VoIP communications revolution," said Pulver. "The buzz surrounding the international VoIP industry continues to grow, and it's important for everyone to understand and take advantage of the changes taking place. IP Communications is 'disruptive' communications in the most positive sense, and it will dramatically enhance the ways in which we communicate."
Jeff Pulver is president and CEO of Pulver.com Enterprises, a group of companies focused on IP hardware, software, and communications services, and is the founder of Free World Dialup (FWD), the VON coalition, LibreTel, WHP Wireless, pulverinnovations, and Digisip, and the co-founder of VoIP provider Vonage. Pulver also publishes a blog that is said to offer insight into the state of the IP Communications industry, covering "all-things-VoIP . . . from the technical to the political."
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