| Report predicts 4 million household robots by 2007 |
Oct. 22, 2004
 The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), in cooperation with the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), has published its "World Robotics 2004" survey. The results show that worldwide investment in industrial robots was up 19 percent in 2003, and that in first half of 2004, orders for robots were up another 18 percent to the highest level ever recorded. Overall, the survey projects worldwide robotics market growth over the period 2004-2007 to achieve an annual rate of about 7 percent.
Also of interest: over 600,000 household robots were in use by the end of 2003, a number that is anticipated to swell by more than 4 million units by 2007. "In the long run, service robots will be everyday tools for mankind," the report says.
Here are some highlights of the report's key findings . . . - Double digit growth in the robot business -- In 2003, the robot market in North America surged by 28 percent, by close to 25 percent in Japan and by 4 percent in the European Union, says Jan Karlsson, responsible for the UNECE/IFR publication. The modest growth in the European Union market should, however, be seen in the light of the fact that with the exception of 1997 and 2001-2002, the European Union has had double-digit market growth since 1994.
- Trends in 2004 and 2004-2007 forecast -- The UNECE/IFR quarterly survey on order intake of industrial robots, which includes most of the world's largest companies, showed that worldwide order intake increased by 18 percent in the first half of 2004, compared with the same period in 2003. It was the highest order intake of industrial robots ever recorded, worldwide and in all regions, except in Europe where it was the second best half year recorded. The order intake (growth), by regions, was as follows: North America, +18 percent; Europe, -3 percent; Asia, +57 percent; other regions, 0 percent. Worldwide sales are forecasted to increase from 81,800 units in 2003 to over 106,000 units by 2007, or an average of close to 7 percent per year.
- How many robots are now working out there in industry? -- Worldwide, at least 800,000 units (possibly the real stock could be well over one million units), of which 350,000 in Japan, close to 250,000 in the European Union and about 112,000 in North America. In Europe, Germany is in the lead with 112,700 units, followed by Italy with 50,000, France with 26,000, Spain with 20,000, and the United Kingdom with 14,000.
- 2007 forecast -- A conservative forecast points about one million units worldwide, of which 350,000 in Japan, 326,000 in the European Union, and 145,000 in North America.
- Regarding Japan's position in automation eroding -- Robot business was booming in Japan in the 1980s and early 1990s. The optimism was unlimited. It seemed as if everything that could be robotized was robotized. Since the middle of the 1990s, the momentum in the robot business has moved to Europe and North America. In 2003, their robot stocks increased by 7 percent and 9 percent, respectively. In Japan it has steadily been falling since 1998 but shows now sign of recovering.
- Why invest in robots? -- In the last decade the performance of robots has increased enormously while at the same time their prices have been plummeting. A robot sold in 2003 would have cost about a fourth of what a robot with the same performance would have cost in 1990. In the last few years the price decrease of robots has, however, started to level off. Profitability studies have shown that it is not unusual for robots to have a pay-back period as short as 1-2 years.
- And not hire people? -- In Germany, for instance, the prices of robots relative to labour costs have fallen from 100 in 1990 to 35 in 2003 and to 15 when taking into account the radically improved performance of robots. In North America, the relative price dropped to 28 and to about 12 if quality improvements are taken into consideration. "Falling or stable robot prices, increasing labour costs and continuously improved technology are major driving forces which speak for continued massive robot investment in industry", says Jan Karlsson. Even in developing countries like Brazil, Mexico and China, robot investments are starting to take off at an impressive rate. "As robots are used both for increasing capacity and for rationalizing production, robots investments are made also during periods of economic recession. When the economy recovers, production can then to a large extent be increased without necessarily hiring new labour," concludes Jan Karlsson.
- If robots are so profitable why is there not an even stronger rush to invest? -- Robots are not products to be acquired over the counter. In order to reap the benefits of robots, potential user companies must have sufficient in-house technological know-how as well as a thorough comprehension of their production processes.
- How many robots per employee in the manufacturing industry? -- About 320 per 10,000 employees in Japan, 148 in Germany, 116 in Italy, 99 in Sweden and between 80 and 50 in Finland, Spain, France, United States, Austria, Benelux and Denmark (the figure for Japan includes all types of robots while for all the other countries only multipurpose industrial robots are included. The figures are therefore not comparable). In the United Kingdom the density amounted to about 40.
- In the car industry? -- In Japan, Italy and Germany there is more than 1 robot per 10 production workers.
- Are we seeing any service robots in our homes? -- At the end of 2003, about 610,000 autonomous vacuum cleaners and lawn-mowing robots were in operation. In 2004-2007, more than 4 million new units are forecasted to be added.
- How are service robots for professional use doing? -- Medical robots, underwater robots, surveillance robots, demolition robots and many other types of robots for carrying out a multitude of tasks are doing very well. A stock of some 21,000 units was estimated at the end of 2003. In the period 2004-2007, another 54,000 units are projected to be added to the stock.
- In the long run, service robots will be everyday tools for mankind -- They will not only clean our floors, mow our lawns and guard our homes but they will also assist old and handicapped people with sophisticated interactive equipment, carry out surgery, inspect pipes and sites that are hazardous to people, fight fire and bombs and be used in many other applications described in the present issue of World Robotics 2004. Huge military investment in service robots will give spin-off effects both for the market of professional service robots and for the market of consumer products.
 The full report, "World Robotics 2004 -- Statistics, Market Analysis, Forecasts, Case Studies and Profitability of Robot Investment" (Sales No. GV.E.04.0.20 or ISBN No. 92-1-101084-5), is available for US$ 150 through United Nations sales agents in various countries or from the United Nations Office at Geneva. A 15-page "executive summary" is available here (PDF file download).
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